Valley1: So, we’re moving the tournament to St. Louis, we need a good name.
Valley2: I know, March Madness.
Valley1: No, moron. That’s already use. The name has to be cool, hip, and relevant to the city of St. Louis.
Valley2: Hmmm, what says St. Louis? Do they have any kind of landmark?
Valley1: Well, they have the Gateway Arch, but how can we use the arch in our name?
Valley2: This is tough.
Valley1: We should probably call an ad agency or something.
Clever or not, the tournament has taken on substantial meaning the past few seasons as the Valley is positioning itself to become the major mid-major basketball conference. Last season, the Valley sent four the NCAA tournament, with an additional two receiving home games in the NIT. The beginning of the season brought a lot of expectations for the conference, and the teams produced in a big way with wins over big name teams such as Wisconsin, Syracuse and LSU.
Entering conference play, the nation knew the conference had some good teams top to bottom, with even the smaller guys being able to pick up some big wins (Ind. State over Butler). Perhaps the strength of the Valley was too good as most teams were unable to truly separate themselves from the cluster fuck it become. The Valley cannibalized itself, and it will seem to hurt the overall post-season aspirations of the conference. As of now, the only school who has become a true lock is Southern Illinois. When was the last time a conference within the top six of overall RPI (according to Kenpom.com) only had one lock entering the conference tournament? Probably never. Thus is the case, and the Valley Tournament has become the last chance for schools to solidify their resume for the NCAA. For Valley commissioner Doug Elgin, the number of teams who truly need a good performance to make the NCAA is too high.
While last year I spent a weekend drunk with press credentials to the tournament (if you can ever score those, take them and enjoy the entire weekend), which was sweet. I got to see every game from press row, sitting next to reporters from the Kansas City Star and New York Times. The Valley puts on a great show for its press, and VIP. Outstanding free food, a conference suite is open after the games. They didn’t even really check out credentials, which was awesome as I brought along my friend Bryan. When we walked into the suite, the main host was like, “there is the food, there is the free wine, and here’s the free beer. Help yourself.” Free beer for two college students? Yes please.
This year I wasn’t able to get credentials as I don’t have a job freelancing for anyone. Which sucks, but still fun all the same. I had a chance to go to the games, but really, it’s like the Seinfeld episode when Jerry explains to Elaine how he can’t sit in coach, and let Elaine sit in first class. He can’t, he won’t. Jerry would know what he is missing, and it’s tough on him. The same is true with me. After sitting in press row during the Valley tournament last year, I can’t and I won’t, sit in the stands. It’s tough.
All game times are central, with each game being shown on Fox Sports Midwest, get yourself to a bar with access and watch. All RPI numbers are from Ken Pomeroy.
Game 3, Friday 12:00 p.m. -- #1 Southern Illinois v #9 Drake
SIU (RPI: 5, SOS: 34, vs RPI-Top 50: 7-2)
The Salukis of Southern Illinois have positioned themselves to become a protect seed with their level of play. Not surprisingly, SIU was able to pick of most the major awards from the conference with Jamaal Tatum winning the Larry Bird MVC Player of the Year award, and head coach Chris Lowery being named the coach of the year. The Salukis style of play is defense, with three players named to the all-defensive team.
SIU should be at least a four seed in the NCAA, with a three very likely. A tournament win in St. Louis could propel the team to a two seed. Winning will take some work, as the top seed has failed to win the conference tournament since 1998. The motivation to win to make a final statement has been weak for the top seed in most years, can Lowery get his players motivated enough to chase a two seed? We’ll see.
#9 Drake (16-14, 6-12. RPI: 115, SOS: 85, v RPI top-50: 0-8)
Drake and Evansville put on a great show in Game 1 to open the Valley Tournament, winning 101-96 in OT. Drake set a new record for three-pointers in the tournament. Their reward will be to play SIU tomorrow at noon. Drake doesn’t have a chance for an at-large to either the NCAA or NIT. The Bulldogs started the Valley season losing eight of their first ten. Congrats to Drake for making it to the quarterfinals over a tough Evansville team.
Game:
SIU should have no problem with the Bulldogs. If the Salukis are going to stumble this weekend, there’s about a three percent chance it will come in the quarterfinals. SIU swept Drake by a combined score of 15 points, which is more indicative of SIU defense power than Drake’s ability to hang. If Drake, the Valley’s worst team in three-point percentage, can somehow come up big behind the arch, then we may see an upset here.
Game 4. Friday 2:35 p.m. -- #4 Bradley v #5 Northern Iowa.
Bradley (19-11, 10-8. RPI: 42, SOS: 23, v RPI top-50: 1-7)
Last year’s Sweet 16 team didn’t return for the 2006-07 season. The Braves’ season can be called overachieving, as most Braves fans would’ve been happy with just staying out of the play-in games. Yet somehow the Braves have managed to win 10 games in conference, not an easy feat, and are squarely on the bubble, though most would say they are out looking in right now. Obviously, winning the tournament is the main goal for the Braves, but getting to championship Sunday for a second year in a row, would put Bradley back into the conversation of last four in/out, although the committee looks very hard at your record against RPI top-50, and 1-7 isn’t that great.
Northern Iowa (18-12, 9-9. RPI: 74, SOS: 80, v RPI top-50: 4-5)
If Bradley’s season can be called overachieving, then welcome to underachieving Valley team B (team A will be introduced later). For most of the season last year, the Panthers were the team to beat in the conference, they had compiled the most impressive victories, stormed thru much of the conference, but fell apart in the end. A tie breaker gave UNI a six seed in the tournament (probably the best six seed the Valley will ever hard) and a quarterfinal date with #3 Missouri St. The game became the most anticipated Valley quarterfinal game in history. Sadly, the game was a flop, but the Panthers won, in what was almost a play-in game for the NCAA.
This season has been a major disappointment for the Panthers with first year coach Ben Jacobson (not the star play from last season’s UNI squad). Non-conference losses include Washington, Loyola-Chicago, and an ass kicking at Nevada in BracketBuster play (the game looked a lot better when first announced).
The Panthers didn’t post any important non-conference wins (the best was against #81 Bucknell), but did manage to secure some big wins in conference. A home win against SIU, and road victories over Missouri St. and Bradley. Those wins won’t carry UNI very far as one nine stretch of Valley games, the Panthers went 1-8, only picking up the game against Evansville. A Valley championship appearance should solidify UNI’s standing in the NIT.
The Game
Bradley was swept by UNI in the regular season, losing by 11 and eight points in the game. With the Braves seeking the NCAA, look for Bradley to rebound and win a close game.
Game 5. Friday -- #2Creighton v #7/#10 Ill. State/Ind. State.
Creighton (19-10, 13-5. RPI: 30, SOS: 29, v RPI top-50: 5-3)
The Bluejays are a tough team to get a handle on. The start the season with a 6-4 record, with all four losses being true road games against Nebraska, Dayton, Fresno St. and Hawaii. Then begin the Valley with a serious comeback win at home against Missouri St, then lose another road game against Indiana St. Their first road win came against Evansville 14 games into the season. The Bluejays were swept by SIU, split with some of the Valley’s worse teams, but they did sweep a Missouri State squad, yet took a damaging loss at home against Drexel in the BracketBuster. Creighton finished the season going 2-3 including the loss to Drexel, and one to Ill. St. The falter at the end has moved Creighton from lock status to the right side of the bubble. Creighton should get into the NCAA by just showing up in St. Louis, but a win in the quarterfinals would make most CU fans feel pretty safe.
#7 Illinois State (15-15, 6-12. RPI: 127, SOS: 89, v RPI top-50: 1-8)
#10 Indiana State (12-17, 5-13. RPI: 139, SOS: 53, v RPI top-50: 3-8)
Ill. St (ISU Red) and Ind. St. (ISU Blue) play the late game on Thursday night for the chance to play Creighton in the quarterfinals. I was planning on updating this after the game on Thursday, but I’m going out to the bars tonight, and I don’t think I’ll be up in time to post before the first game on Friday, so you’re getting it now.
ISU Red won a three game tiebreaker over Evansville and Drake to become the seven seed in the Valley tournament. ISU Blue was just won game behind. Really, neither ISU Red nor Blue have a shot to make the NCAA or NIT, so profiling the teams isn’t necessary. I feel it is important to note ISU Blue was able to knock off Butler by seven points, so obviously they have potential to do some damage in the tournament.
ISU Red was able to win a game against Creighton, but didn’t produce meaningful wins over non-conference opponents.
ISU Blue did start the Valley season hot, after an opening loss to Mo State, they ran off six straight wins, including four in-conference games, and one game over Creighton. After that, Blue wasn’t able to get anything going except for a home win against UNI.
The two teams should put on a competitive game for the fans following the adventure which was Evansville-Drake, it’ll be interesting to see who wins.
The Game:
Creighton split the season with both ISU Red and Blue, losing both while serving as the visiting teams. A loss for the Bluejays, and at-large hopes could be smashed. A win sets up an important game against Mo State (should they beat WSU), in what some could see as a play-in game for the NCAA. Bluejays don’t lose focus, and I’ll say win a close one against ISU.
Game 6. Friday 8:35 p.m. -- #3 Missouri State v #6 Wichita St.
Missouri State (21-9*, 12-6. RPI: 37, SOS: 40, v RPI top-50: 3-5)
Mo State (do not call this team MSU, that’s reserved for Michigan St) has had a very interesting season. If the Bears do not make the NCAA tournament, they will have no one to blame but themselves. Last year could justifiably be seen as a problem from the selection committee, but the Bears have shot themselves in the foot with some of their losses. Many times during the season the Bears have built double digit leads in the second half and have blown the game. A loss* to St. Louis was the first, followed by an important road game against Creighton. The Bears problems with closing games can be seen as the major fault of head coach Barry Hinson. Rumors have swirled around Hinson and his job security. Hinson, along with Director of Athletics Bill Rowe, should definitely feel as if his job is in question if he cannot get the Bears to the NCAA. The Bears do have a marquee win over Wisconsin, but failed to pick up any wins against the Valley’s top two teams, and failed to stop a strong Winthrop team at home, a game in which Hinson displayed his newest defense, titled “Don’t Guard When They Are Behind The Arch,” or DGWTABTA.
For a second year in a row, the Bears have done a great job against the Valley’s bottom teams, going 12-2 against the bottom seven teams. At this point, the Bears are extremely solidly in the NCAA than a year ago, but you should expect the Bears to take a mentality of “We must win the Valley in order to get into the NCAA.”
* Missouri State’s record says a loss to St. Louis, in which SLU tipped the ball in at the buzzer to beat the Bears. After the referees reviewed the play, they ruled the tip as good. It was then found out the tape feed the refs looked at was from Mediacom (who broadcast the game back to Springfield, Mo.) had the wrong clock. The true clock from the
Here’s a video of the tip, around 40 second in, the buzzer sounds, and you can hear the horn and see the tip wasn’t good. Past that, the video shows the reaction by the fans after the refs ruled it good.
#6 Wichita State (16-14, 8-10. RPI: 91, SOS: 70, v RPI top-50: 3-6)
If Northern Iowa was underachieving team B, then Wichita would be team A. Wichita began the season by going 8-0, including at the time big wins over Syracuse and LSU, both on the road. The problem for the Shockers began in the Las Vegas Invitational with losses to New Mexico and USC. It continued with back to back losses to open the Valley season. Losing six of seven, the Shockers were unable to pick up any key wins against the Valley’s top three, with the exception of a win at home against Creighton.
Last season’s Sweet 16 team is a shell of its former self, losing the last four games to Drake, Appalachian St (Appalacha is not a state, neither is Wichita for that matter), Mo State and Creighton. The Shockers could possibly get to the NIT by getting to the Valley championship, but their basketball season should end this weekend.
The Game
The Bears swept the Shockers, and should have little problem in their third game of the season with the attitude Mo State should have this weekend.
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